If you're running a small dev shop, here's the question that matters: When will AI replace you?

Let's skip the theory and just answer it with three games everyone knows.

Where AI Is Right Now (2026)

Can do: Scripts, tools, simple prototypes, bug fixes

Can't do: Large games, complex systems, anything requiring memory across weeks

Why not? Context limits and no persistent memory. It's like a genius who forgets everything every hour.

The Timeline (Optimistic)

Here's when AI could realistically build these games from just a prompt:

GTA3 (2001 game)

• Open world 3D city
• Missions, story, cars, weapons
• Basic physics and AI

When: 2029-2031

Counter-Strike (1999 game)

• Multiplayer FPS
• Maps, weapons, game modes
• Server infrastructure

When: 2028-2030

PUBG (2017 game)

• 100-player battle royale
• Large map, loot system
• Complex networking

When: 2030-2032

What Needs to Happen First

1. Persistent memory (AI remembers yesterday)
2. Multi-agent systems (different AIs for code/art/sound)
3. Testing loops (AI can run and debug its own work)
4. Massive context (10M-100M tokens)

These exist in labs. Commercial deployment: 2028-2032.

Should You Worry?

If you make:

• Simple mobile games → Worry by 2028
• CRUD web apps → Worry now
• AA indie games → Worry by 2030
• Creative/specialized work → You're safe longer

Bottom line: You have 2-6 years depending on what you build. Use AI to 10x your output, or someone else will.

Timeline Graph